arcadiabritt

By the Numbers: Obama Presidential Term Seems Likely, but not Certain

In Uncategorized on October 30, 2008 at 2:55 am

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In order to win the presidency, one of the two candidates must win at least 270 votes in the Electoral College. Each state has a value in the Electoral College based on their number of elected representatives in Congress. For example, a state with two senators, and five members of the House of Representatives will receive seven votes in the Electoral College. So far Obama is leading McCain in the number of states that he has a solid majority in (259 for Obama to 152 for McCain). Neither of these numbers are great enough to win, however, and that’s where the swing states come in.

These pivotal states are where the race is still tight between the two candidates and could go either way in the election. Obama has the edge in many of these states as well, but they are by no means a sure victory. Where Obama has made impressive inroads are in states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Missouri. These states were typically well in Republican column, and few expected McCain to have to defend them this late in the race. Obama has had a significant advantage in the amount of money he can spend on Television ads in these states, and in some cases has out spent McCain eight to one.

At this point the odds are stacked against a McCain presidency, but the votes will not be in until November 4th. Until then Obama will look to increase his lead, while McCain desperately tries to close the gap.

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